Confidence is usually seen as a strength.
Leaders are expected to be confident. Professionals want to feel confident when making decisions. People often seek coaching because they want more confidence in themselves, their choices and their abilities.
But confidence can become dangerous when it turns into certainty without evidence. A person may feel completely sure about a judgment, decision or prediction and still be wrong. That is the real danger: confidence can feel like proof even when it is not.
Why Confidence Can Be Misleading
Psychologist and Nobel Prize winner Daniel Kahneman explored this idea in Thinking, Fast and Slow, particularly in his discussion of the “illusion of validity.”
He explained that subjective confidence is not necessarily a reliable indicator that a judgment is correct.
Confidence often comes from two things:
- the information seems to fit together logically; and
- the brain finds the story easy to process.
When both happen, people naturally feel more certain. But a coherent story is not necessarily a correct story. People can build a convincing explanation from incomplete information, flawed assumptions or personal bias and still feel highly confident about it. That is why confidence alone should never be mistaken for accuracy.
The Real Problem Is the Need for Certainty
Most people do not actually want confidence.
They want certainty.
They want to know:
- Will this decision work?
- Will this investment succeed?
- Will this strategy deliver results?
- Am I capable of achieving this goal?
Certainty feels safe because it removes ambiguity. The problem is that business, leadership and life rarely offer guarantees. Markets change. Strategies fail. Customers behave differently than expected. Competitors react. Economic conditions shift. Unexpected events happen. Trying to eliminate uncertainty does not make uncertainty disappear. It often creates something more dangerous: false certainty.
And once a person becomes too certain, they may stop questioning their own assumptions.
When Confidence Creates a Blind Spot
The human brain naturally prefers information that fits an existing story. When new information contradicts what someone already believes, it creates discomfort. Instead of changing the belief, people may unconsciously change the way they interpret the evidence.
Warning signs get minimised.
Criticism gets dismissed.
Contradictory information gets explained away.
Evidence supporting the existing belief receives more attention.
Over time, the story becomes increasingly convincing. And because the story feels convincing, confidence increases. This can be especially dangerous in leadership and decision-making.
- A leader who is too confident may stop listening.
- A manager who is too certain may ignore feedback.
- An entrepreneur who strongly believes in a strategy may continue investing in it long after the evidence suggests otherwise.
The risk is not confidence itself. The risk is becoming too confident to remain curious.
What Should People Build Instead?
Instead of chasing confidence, a more useful goal is to build three things:
1. Competence
Competence comes from knowledge, practice, experience and continuous improvement.
- Someone who wants to become a better leader needs to practise leadership.
- Someone who wants to become a better presenter needs to present.
- Someone who wants to improve decision-making needs to make decisions, review the results and learn from them.
Competence produces evidence. And confidence that grows from evidence is far more reliable than confidence created by positive thinking alone.
2. Curiosity
Competent people still make mistakes. That is why strong decision-makers remain curious even when they believe they are right.
They ask:
- What might I be missing?
- What evidence would prove my assumption wrong?
- What alternative explanation should I consider?
- Who sees this differently from me?
Curiosity prevents confidence from becoming arrogance.
3. Resilience
Even the best decisions do not always produce the desired result. No amount of confidence or competence can eliminate uncertainty completely. That makes resilience essential.
The more useful question is not: “How can I guarantee success?”
It is: “If this does not work, how quickly can I learn, adjust and move forward?”
Resilience turns failure into information rather than identity.
A Practical Check Before Making a Confident Decision
Before acting on a decision that feels obvious or certain, pause and run through four questions:
1. What evidence supports this decision?
Separate facts from assumptions.
2. What evidence challenges it?
Look deliberately for information that does not fit the preferred conclusion.
3. What would change the decision?
If the answer is “nothing,” confidence may already have become rigidity.
4. What is the recovery plan if the decision is wrong?
Good decision-making is not about guaranteeing success. It is also about managing the downside.
These questions create a useful discipline: confidence with humility.
Stop Trying to Feel More Confident
The goal should not be to eliminate doubt. Some doubt is useful. It encourages people to verify assumptions, seek feedback, prepare properly and keep learning.
So instead of asking: “How can I become more confident?”
ask: “What can I become more competent at?”
Instead of asking: “How can I be certain this will work?”
ask: “What evidence do I have, what am I assuming, and what will I do if I am wrong?”
And instead of trying to protect confidence at all costs, build the resilience to recover when reality proves the prediction wrong.
The Better Goal
Confidence should be the outcome, not the objective.
- Build competence.
- Stay curious.
- Question assumptions.
- Accept uncertainty.
- Develop resilience.
Then confidence becomes something far more valuable than a feeling.
It becomes the natural result of knowing that even when things do not go exactly as planned, there is enough capability to respond, learn and move forward.
Curated by Danielle Tan.
Reference:
- [Meta-Coaches] 2026 Morpheus #36 A MOST DANGEROUS META-STATE by L. Michael Hall, Ph.D. Executive Director, ISNS.
